Simulation target is to give us intuition, tradeoffs and trends, not exact solutions.

Simulation uses 2021 grid data (sampled every 30 minutes) and scales it according to year and user inputs.

Grid management is simple: first use baseload Nuclear power plants, then PV and storage, and lastly fire up Natural Gas power plants to minimize CO2 emissions.

Assumptions:

• Israeli grid operator (Noga ) estimation of demand: 2.5x vs. 2021 in energy requirements.
  Production: Solar PV, Gas, Nuclear (no wind or coal). 

• Storage: Pumped (Gilboa) or Batteries: Li Ion Batteries.

• Discount rate: 4%, 7%. 

• Israel is an energetic island

Not accounting for: 

• No Power transmission build costs (~1-2 M$ per km)

• No production geography and transmission bottlenecks (Copper plate model)

• Gas is 100% flexible (no response time), but efficiency as NGCC (combined cycle)- optimistic 

• No SPARE capacity

• No Mutli year variation